The Economics Research Seminar provides a platform for external speakers to present their ongoing research. It provides a forum for the exchange of ideas and discussion between faculty members and external researchers.
Upcoming Events
- 4 December 2024, 17:00 until 18:30, seminar room 8
Lucas Bretschger (ETH Zürich)
Title: Decarbonization with Endogenous Energy Innovations
Abstract: Achieving the internationally agreed climate targets will require major efforts in the use of renewable energies and effective public policies. The paper presents an endogenous growth model with polluting and clean energies as inputs. Knowledge is accumulated through innovations on the aggregate level and in the provision of dirty and clean energy. Clean energy gains market share once it reaches a critical threshold that depends on sectoral and cross-sectoral knowledge diffusion and policy. Carbon taxes and subsidies for clean energy infrastructure have a symmetric effect on the energy transition. The speed of transition determines the increase or decrease in the value of infrastructure in the two energy sectors, which may influence political decisions on the stringency of climate policy.
Host: Thomas Steger
- 11 December 2024, 17:00 until 18:30, seminar room 8
Sebastian Kripfganz (University of Exeter)
Title: Serial correlation testing in error component models with moderately
small T
Abstract: When testing for unrestricted serial correlation in the idiosyncratic error component of a linear panel data model, the number of testable moment restrictions under the null hypothesis of no such correlation increases quadratically in the number of time periods T. We document that a recently proposed portmanteau test designed for fixed T (Jochmans, 2020, Journal of Applied Econometrics) quickly loses power in finite samples - and eventually degenerates - even for time horizons that are widely considered as small. As a remedy, we consider dimensionality reduction strategies in the form of linear combinations of the moment restrictions. Motivated by similar approaches to collapse and curtail the internal instruments in the estimation of linear dynamic panel data models, the modified tests can achieve substantial power gains - even for T as small as 3. In particular, we suggest a test statistic based on a combination of short and longer differences. This new test has superior power against a wide range of stationary and nonstationary alternatives; it does not lose power as the process under the alternative approaches a random walk - unlike the Arellano and Bond (1991, Review of Economic Studies) and Yamagata (2008, Journal of Econometrics) tests - and it is robust to large variances of the unit-specific error component - unlike the portmanteau test. All of the considered tests are applicable to models with predetermined or endogenous regressors.
Host: Melanie Krause
- 8 January 2025, 17:00 until 18:30, seminar room 1
Frikk Nesje (University of Copenhagen)
Title: Intergenerational discounting and inequality
Abstract: tba
Host: Martin Hänsel
- 15 January 2025, 17:00 until 18:30, seminar room 8
Daan van Soest (Tilburg University)
Title: tbd
Abstract: tbd
Host: Martin Quaas
- 5 February 2025, 17:00 until 18:30, seminar room 8
Thomas Knoke (TU München)
Title: tbd
Abstract: tbd
Host: Martin Quaas
Previous events
- 6 November 2024, 17:00 until 18:30, seminar room 8
Carla Krolage (University of Regensburg)
Title: Rent control, expropriation risk and political uncertainty
Abstract: This paper examines the longer-run effects of rent control using a rich micro dataset of German apartment rents and purchase prices. Our empirical analysis exploits the introduction and subsequent abolition of a stringent rent cap in Berlin. While we find a drop in rents in the regulated segment and an increase in the unregulated segment while the regulation was in place, our results indicate a sustained increase in rents across both segments following the abolition of the rent cap. We attribute this to a supply side response to the increase in uncertainty on the local real estate market.
Host: Melanie Krause
- 30 October 2024, 17:00 until 18:30, seminar room 8
Holger Strulik (University of Göttingen)
Title: The Fertility Transition and Directed Technical Change towards Green Growth
Abstract: It is generally believed that population growth is associated with higher CO₂ emissions. Empirically, however, the fertility rate is negatively associated with emissions while education and individual human capital are positively associated. In this paper, we set up an R\&D-based model of economic growth and pollution with endogenous fertility and education that explains these stylized facts and reconciles them with the common wisdom. By refining the theory of directed technical change we explain why (i) lower birth rates within and across countries are associated with more human capital and therefore with higher income and more emissions in the 19th and 20th century and (ii) that directed technical change is a necessary but not sufficient condition for low fertility to ultimately have a positive impact on emissions, as a smaller but better educated workforce is able to transition to green growth earlier.
Host: Thomas Steger
- 3 July 2024
Ulrich Woitek (University of Zurich)
Determinants of Success at Ancient Olympia
Abstract: Population and GDP are the best predictors for a country’s success at the modern Olympic Games (Bernard and Busse, 2004). Looking at the ancient Games (776 BCE-392 CE), we find a similar result for the competing cities. For the individual athletes, however, this is not the case. Resource availability measured by a city’s territory reduces the chance of winning.
22 May 2024
Leonie Wenz (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Empirical evidence for climate migration from a global panel of subnational regions
Abstract: Climate change-induced migration poses socioeconomic and political risks, yet quantitative evidence of such effects at global scales, including within-country and cross-border migration, remains lacking. Here, we combine migration data for more than 3,000 subnational regions worldwide and 20 years with assessments of local climate conditions including extremes. Fixed-effects panel regression analysis provides strong and robust evidence that rising temperatures as well as temperature and rainfall extremes induce outward migration in low-income regions. Explicit assessment of spatial spill-overs confirms that temperature increases and extremes generate cross-border flows towards high-income countries. We project that - ceteris paribus - 180 million people will migrate from low-income regions due to climate change across emission scenarios by mid-century.- 31 January 2024
Jan Marcus (FU Berlin)
The State of Replication Code Availability: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel
Abstract: Replicating scientific findings is a crucial element of the scientific method, and providing replication code, such as scripts in statistical software like Stata, R, or Matlab, is an effective and inexpensive way to enable replications. However, little is known about the extent of replication code provision, over time and across disciplines. For this purpose, this study looks at one of the most widely used datasets in economics and other social sciences, the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), and examines the availability of replication code for over 2,500 peer-reviewed articles based on the SOEP. The empirical findings reveal that a mere 6.0 % of SOEP-based studies have available code. However, the share of studies providing code steadily rising since the early 2010s, reaching more than 20 % in recent years. Notably, studies in high-ranked journals exhibit higher code availability, aligning with the trend that such journals often enforce mandatory code-sharing policies. This research underscores the evolving landscape of code availability and its implications for the transparency and reproducibility of scientific research.
- 29 November 2023
Moritz Drupp (Universität Hamburg)
De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Delivering Climate and Health Benefits
This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the world’s largest environmental tax reform. We compare carbon and air pollutant emissions of the German transport sector and synthetic counterfactuals following the 1999 eco-tax reform, and find average reductions in external damages of around 80 billion Euros. We further show that the eco-tax induced low-carbon innovation and document much stronger demand responses to eco-tax increases than to market price movements, primarily driven by increased tax salience in newspapers. Our results highlight the key roles of salience and fuel substitution in mediating the effectiveness of fuel taxes to deliver climate and health benefits. - 8 November 2023
Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management)
Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro
Abstract: Using firm-level data, we study how firm expectations adjust to news while accounting for a) the heterogeneity of news and b) the heterogeneity of firms. We classify news as either micro or macro, that is, information about firm-specific developments or information about the aggregate economy. Survey data for German and Italian firms allows us to reject rational expectations: Both types of news predict forecast errors at the firm level. Yet while firm expectations overreact to micro news, they underreact to macro news. We propose a general-equilibrium model where firms suffer from ‘island illusion’ to explain these patterns in the data. - 5 July 2023
Richard Bluhm (Universität Stuttgart)
Ethnofederalism and Ethnic Voting
Abstract: We investigate how changes in the administrative-territorial structure affect ethnic voting. We present an event study design that exploits the 2010 constitutional reform in Kenya, which substantially increased the number of primary administrative regions. We find (i) strong evidence for a reduction in ethnic voting when administrative regions become less ethnically diverse and (ii) weak evidence for such a reduction when ethnic groups become less fragmented across regions. These results suggest that ‘ethnofederal’ reforms (leading to administrative borders that more closely follow ethnic boundaries) can mitigate ethnic politics in diverse countries. - 28 June 2023
Pallab Mozumder (Florida International University, Miami)
Analyzing The Effect of Hurricane Irma on Birth Outcomes in Florida
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the impact of Hurricane Irma on birth outcomes including low birth weight and preterm birth. We used cross-sectional birth records provided by the Florida Department of Health over the period 2016-2018 to explore the effect of hurricane Irma on birth outcomes. In our empirical analyses we stratified birth records into the treatment group and the control group. The treatment group includes pregnant women living in the path of the hurricane and the control group consists of those living away from the hurricane path. The geospatial information of Hurricane Irma such as the hurricane track and the wind speed were obtained from the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Using the difference-in-difference regression model, we capture the effect of hurricane exposure on the treated group before and after the hurricane. The results suggest that on average infants born in the path of Hurricane Irma were at least 6 grams lighter than infants born outside the hurricane path. This impact of the hurricane on birthweight is much larger if pregnant women were exposed to the hurricane in their third trimester. We conduct a wide range of robustness checks and examine possible causal mechanisms that could contribute to the hurricane induced adverse birth outcome. - 14 June 2023
Lint Barrage (ETH Zürich)
Equilibrium Particulate Exposure
Abstract: We assemble global spatially disaggregated panel data describing ambient particulate levels and transport, population, and economic and polluting activities. These data indicate the importance of country level determinants of pollution, of the equilibrium process that separates or brings together people and particulates, of urbanization, and of the composition of economic activity and energy production. We then develop an Integrated Assessment Model describing particulate emissions, economic activity and particulate dispersion. We quantify the model for 31 countries representing more than 60% of world population. Model results indicate the importance of general equilibrium adjustments to particulates policy. For example, restrictions on agricultural burning increase equilibrium pollution exposure in the majority of countries by shifting labor to more polluting industries and locations. The model also indicates important cross-country heterogeneity in the effects of particulates policies.